How Magic & Tragic Numbers Work

Playoff races aren’t just about wins and losses — they’re about paths.

NHL Magic Numbers tracks those paths using two countdowns:

• Magic # — how close a team is to clinching
• Tragic # — how close a team is to elimination

Only one of these can ever reach 0.

We calculate both within your team’s conference.

Magic # — Clinching the playoffs

Magic # counts down to clinching a playoff spot.

When Magic reaches 0, your team is guaranteed a place in the postseason — no matter what happens elsewhere.

How it’s anchored: Tragic is tied to the playoff cutoff line. If your team is currently in a playoff spot, Tragic is anchored to the 9th-place chaser. If your team is outside the playoffs, it’s anchored to the 8th-place line. Elimination happens when your team’s max possible points can no longer cross that line.

Magic goes down when:

• Your team earns points
• Teams around the bubble lose (the “threat line” gets weaker)
• Other teams’ max ceilings shrink as they run out of games

Mental model:
Magic answers: “How many points-worth of chaos are left before we’re in?”

Tragic # — Elimination margin

Tragic # counts down to mathematical elimination.

When Tragic reaches 0, there is no possible future where your team can make the playoffs.

How it’s anchored: Tragic uses the current 9th-place team’s points as the “chaser line.” You’re eliminated when your team’s max possible points can’t get above that line.

Tragic goes down when:

• The 9th-place chaser gains points
• Your team loses (you burn a game and lower your future ceiling)

Mental model:
Tragic answers: “How much runway is left before elimination becomes unavoidable?”

Why numbers can move in surprising ways

• Tragic can go down even after a win
• Magic may not change after a loss
• Both can move at once

This happens because the numbers depend on ceilings (max possible points) and the chaser line — not just whether you won tonight.

Example: if you win, Magic often drops (you gained points), but Tragic can also drop if the 9th-place chaser gained ground elsewhere or if your ceiling changed relative to that line.

Why we show both numbers

Most standings tell you where teams are right now. Magic & Tragic tell you what’s still possible.

• Who controls their own fate
• Who needs help
• Who’s running out of runway

Together, they show the shape of the race — not just the snapshot.